{"id":40740,"date":"2020-06-24T12:38:03","date_gmt":"2020-06-24T10:38:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.burks.de\/burksblog\/?p=40740"},"modified":"2020-06-24T12:40:22","modified_gmt":"2020-06-24T10:40:22","slug":"only-right-now-biden-will-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.burks.de\/burksblog\/2020\/06\/24\/only-right-now-biden-will-win","title":{"rendered":"Only right now: Biden will win"},"content":{"rendered":"

Economist<\/a>: „Forecasting the US elections“. „Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college.“<\/p>\n

Immerhin eine solide Faktenbasis. Das Problem ist aber, dass die W\u00e4hler, die Trump w\u00e4hlen w\u00fcrden, das eventuell nicht sagen, daher bei Umfragen gar nicht vorkommen. Vgl. Michael Moore<\/a> (2016) \u00fcber den „Jesse-Ventura-Effekt“:
\nAnd because of that, and the anger that so many have toward a broken political system, millions are going to vote for Trump not because they agree with him, not because they like his bigotry or ego, but just because they can. Just because it will upset the apple cart and make mommy and daddy mad. And in the same way like when you\u2019re standing on the edge of Niagara Falls and your mind wonders for a moment what would that feel like to go over that thing, a lot of people are going to love being in the position of puppetmaster and plunking down for Trump just to see what that might look like.<\/i><\/p>\n

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