{"id":39695,"date":"2020-03-18T15:13:07","date_gmt":"2020-03-18T14:13:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.burks.de\/burksblog\/?p=39695"},"modified":"2020-03-18T19:28:35","modified_gmt":"2020-03-18T18:28:35","slug":"civilized-species-im-stresstest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.burks.de\/burksblog\/2020\/03\/18\/civilized-species-im-stresstest","title":{"rendered":"Civilized Species im Stresstest [Update]"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">I feel like this is the video that perfectly depicts how far we\u2019ve come as civilized species. I present to you the Toilet Paper Rush of 2020, in <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Costco?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Costco<\/a> stores. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Covid_19?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Covid_19<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/CoronaOutbreak?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#CoronaOutbreak<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hKzjqgwk6p\">pic.twitter.com\/hKzjqgwk6p<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Officer Bandit \ud83d\udc6e\ud83c\udffb\u200d\u2640\ufe0f\ud83e\udd9d \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 (@OfficerBandit) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/OfficerBandit\/status\/1238215769445388288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 12, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Das \u00f6sterreichische Heer <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bundesheer.at\/archiv\/a2020\/corona\/index.shtml\">empfielt<\/a> gegen die COVID-19-Pandemie, den Humor nicht zu vergessen. Wenn man humorlos sein sollte, ist man vermutlich aufgeschmissen.<\/p>\n<p>Hoffentlich werden auch alle Friseurl\u00e4den geschlossen. Die sind nicht wichtig. #vikings<\/p>\n<p>Die hier noch nie zitierte <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wetterauer-zeitung.de\/wetterau\/friedberg-ort28695\/coronavirus-wetteraukreis-testet-nicht-mehr-13601784.html\">Wetterauer Zeitung<\/a> berichtet, dass dort gar nicht mehr getestet werde. &#8222;In den allermeisten F\u00e4llen wird das Virus als harmloser grippaler Infekt ablaufen.&#8220; Das halte ich f\u00fcr Fake News. Christian Y. Schmidt, der auch in China lebt, dazu:<br \/>\n&#8222;Angeblich 100.000 Tests in einer Woche. Offenbar muss man jetzt die Lokalzeitungen lesen, um die Wahrheit zu erfahren. Sie l\u00fcgen uns die Hucke voll. Alle Staaten, die intensiv getestet und isoliert haben (China, S\u00fcdkorea, Israel) sind mehr oder weniger erfolgreich bei der Bek\u00e4mpfung der Seuche. Nur in Deutschland glaubt man, Tests seien \u00fcberfl\u00fcssig, bzw. ist die Katastrophe so weit fortgeschritten, dass man es nicht mehr schafft zu testen. Dieses Land ist ein #failedstate. Und die Leute, die f\u00fcr die Zust\u00e4nde verantwortlich sind, m\u00fcssen daf\u00fcr auch zur Verantwortung gezogen werden &#8211; sp\u00e4testens dann, wenn das hier vorbei ist.&#8220;<\/p>\n<p>Das wird aber nicht passieren. Noch nicht einmal die &#8222;Linke&#8220; fordert, das Gesundheitssystem zu verstaatlichen und nicht mehr profitorientiert sein zu lassen. (Belehrt mich eines Besseren?!)<\/p>\n<p>Der <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2020\/mar\/18\/tip-of-the-iceberg-is-our-destruction-of-nature-responsible-for-covid-19-aoe?\">Guardian<\/a> erkl\u00e4rt, warum Dschungel gut gegen Viren ist.<\/p>\n<p>Jetzt habe ich noch Mathematik anzubieten (Englisch mit Untertiteln):<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper fourthree\" title=\"Exponential growth and epidemics\" style=\"width:480px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_Kas0tIxDvrg\" itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><div><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/Kas0tIxDvrg\/hqdefault.jpg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"embedURL\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Kas0tIxDvrg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT8M57S\" \/><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2020-03-08T16:58:19Z\" \/><\/div><meta itemprop=\"accessibilityFeature\" content=\"captions\" \/><div id=\"lyte_Kas0tIxDvrg\" data-src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/Kas0tIxDvrg\/hqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\" itemprop=\"name\">Exponential growth and epidemics<\/div><\/div><button tabindex=\"0\" class=\"play\"><\/button><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/Kas0tIxDvrg\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/Kas0tIxDvrg\/0.jpg\" alt=\"Exponential growth and epidemics\" width=\"480\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>Dieses Video auf YouTube ansehen<\/a><\/noscript><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"A primer on exponential and logistic growth Help fund future projects: https:\/\/www.patreon.com\/3blue1brown An equally valuable form of support is to simply share some of the videos. Special thanks to these supporters: http:\/\/3b1b.co\/covid-thanks Home page: https:\/\/www.3blue1brown.com Excellent visualization of this kind of growth from Minutephysics and Aatish Bhatia: https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc Data source: https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/coronavirus\/coronavirus-cases\/#case-tot-outchina Some have (quite rightfully) commented on how you shouldn&#039;t look at the R^2 of linear regressions on cumulative data since even if the changes from one day to the next are completely random, the totals they add up to wouldn&#039;t be independent of each other. Since the derivative of an exponential should also be an exponential, we could instead run the same test on the logarithms of the differences from day to day, which in this case gives R^2 = 0.91. While this video uses COVID-19 as a motivating example, the main goal is simply a math lesson on exponentials and logistic curves. If you&#039;re looking for a video more focused on COVID-19 itself, I&#039;d recommend taking a look at this one from Osmosis: https:\/\/youtu.be\/cFB_C2ieW5I Extrapolation xkcd: https:\/\/xkcd.com\/605\/ Thanks to these viewers for their contributions to translations Hebrew: Omer Tuchfeld ------------------ These animations are largely made using manim, a scrappy open source python library: https:\/\/github.com\/3b1b\/manim If you want to check it out, I feel compelled to warn you that it&#039;s not the most well-documented tool, and it has many other quirks you might expect in a library someone wrote with only their own use in mind. Music by Vincent Rubinetti. Download the music on Bandcamp: https:\/\/vincerubinetti.bandcamp.com\/album\/the-music-of-3blue1brown Stream the music on Spotify: https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/album\/1dVyjwS8FBqXhRunaG5W5u If you want to contribute translated subtitles or to help review those that have already been made by others and need approval, you can click the gear icon in the video and go to subtitles\/cc, then &quot;add subtitles\/cc&quot;. I really appreciate those who do this, as it helps make the lessons accessible to more people. ------------------ 3blue1brown is a channel about animating math, in all senses of the word animate. And you know the drill with YouTube, if you want to stay posted on new videos, subscribe: http:\/\/3b1b.co\/subscribe Various social media stuffs: Website: https:\/\/www.3blue1brown.com Twitter: https:\/\/twitter.com\/3blue1brown Reddit: https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/3blue1brown Instagram: https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/3blue1brown_animations\/ Patreon: https:\/\/patreon.com\/3blue1brown Facebook: https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/3blue1brown\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:480px;margin:5px;\"><br\/><span class=\"lyte_disclaimer\">Das Video wird von YouTube eingebettet und erst beim Klick auf den Play-Button geladen. Es gelten die <a href=\"https:\/\/policies.google.com\/privacy?hl=de\">Datenschutzerkl\u00e4rungen von Google<\/A>.<\/span><\/div><\/p>\n<p>Die d\u00e4mlichen Deutschen <a href=\"https:\/\/www.merkur.de\/lokales\/garmisch-partenkirchen\/garmisch-partenkirchen-ort28711\/coronavirus-garmisch-partenkirchen-ansturm-massen-skifahren-covid19-13602686.html\">haben das noch nicht begriffen<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>[<a href=\"http:\/\/covidsim.eu\/\">Update<\/a>: &#8222;Pandemic Preparedness Planning for COVID-19&#8220;.<\/p>\n<p><i>Dieses Posting hat keinen Abspann.<\/i><\/p>\n<div class=\"pdfprnt-buttons pdfprnt-buttons-post pdfprnt-bottom-right\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.burks.de\/burksblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39695?print=pdf\" class=\"pdfprnt-button pdfprnt-button-pdf\" target=\"_blank\" ><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.burks.de\/burksblog\/wp-content\/plugins\/pdf-print\/images\/pdf.png\" alt=\"image_pdf\" title=\"PDF anzeigen\" \/><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.burks.de\/burksblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39695?print=print\" class=\"pdfprnt-button pdfprnt-button-print\" target=\"_blank\" ><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.burks.de\/burksblog\/wp-content\/plugins\/pdf-print\/images\/print.png\" alt=\"image_print\" title=\"Inhalt drucken\" \/><\/a><\/div><div class=\"twoclick_social_bookmarks_post_39695 social_share_privacy clearfix 1.6.4 locale-de_DE sprite-de_DE\"><\/div><div class=\"twoclick-js\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\">\/* <![CDATA[ *\/\njQuery(document).ready(function($){if($('.twoclick_social_bookmarks_post_39695')){$('.twoclick_social_bookmarks_post_39695').socialSharePrivacy({\"services\":{\"facebook\":{\"status\":\"on\",\"txt_info\":\"2 Klicks f\\u00fcr mehr Datenschutz: Erst wenn Sie hier klicken, wird der Button aktiv und Sie k\\u00f6nnen Ihre Empfehlung an Facebook senden. 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I present to you the Toilet Paper Rush of 2020, in #Costco stores. #Covid_19 #CoronaOutbreak pic.twitter.com\/hKzjqgwk6p \u2014 Officer Bandit \ud83d\udc6e\ud83c\udffb\u200d\u2640\ufe0f\ud83e\udd9d \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 (@OfficerBandit) March 12, 2020 Das \u00f6sterreichische Heer empfielt gegen die COVID-19-Pandemie, den Humor nicht zu vergessen. Wenn [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,15,17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39695","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-panorama","category-politics","category-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.burks.de\/burksblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39695","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.burks.de\/burksblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.burks.de\/burksblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.burks.de\/burksblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.burks.de\/burksblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39695"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.burks.de\/burksblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39695\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39701,"href":"https:\/\/www.burks.de\/burksblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39695\/revisions\/39701"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.burks.de\/burksblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39695"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.burks.de\/burksblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39695"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.burks.de\/burksblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39695"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}